Breaking News

Netanyahu: Iran has still not learned its lesson

October 21, 2026

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Wednesday that the Iranian regime “has not learned its lesson” and that it is still attempting to develop nuclear weapons. “[Iranian Supreme Leader] Mojtaba Khamenei decided to follow in his father’s footsteps. He has taken off the safety, and Iran is once again trying to develop its weapons of death,” Netanyahu said during an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) cadets graduation ceremony. “Therefore, there is only one way to remove this threat once and for all, to topple the regime in Iran, and that is my directive to the IDF, the Mossad and the security agencies,” he added. Meanwhile, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz claimed that Tehran may take “extreme steps,” because it is now at its “weakest point,” but warned that if Iran attacks Israel, it will “burn.”

NN: See video in BlackMask Market Update Titled: Netanyahu is Trumps Bitch

 

Market News and Commentary

FRANCE UP IN FLAMES

October 21, 2026

 

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Limoges, France — 17 October 2026. A fire set amid nationwide unrest devastated the historic municipal building and its clock tower. Reuters reported that a masked mob torched the building. 

Special Report by Nick Guarino

21 October 2026 |

1. Executive perspective

France faces a serious test of public confidence: violent riots, public-sector strains, deep deprivation in particular urban neighborhoods, and difficult fiscal choices. The October 2026 disturbances were not simply another episode in a single uninterrupted riot. They belong to a longer history of unrest, including the 2005 suburban disturbances, the Yellow Vest protests beginning in 2018, and the destructive riots of 2023. What connects these episodes is recurring public anger about representation, policing, purchasing power, public services and opportunity.

France has promised more than its institutions can consistently deliver, especially in its poorest communities. Mass migration has been a financial disaster for France and many other countries. As well meaning as people in power are the reality is It has broken the economy. The breakdown in social services, medical, education and the job market has caused the unrest and social institutions in collapse. Mass out of control immigration has created inequality, criminal violence, educational failures and fiscal deficits spiraling out of control.

2.1 | A weekend of fire: what happened in October 2026

Mass demonstrations on 17 October began around high living costs and deteriorating services, especially school conditions. Most participants demonstrated peacefully. In several cities, violence followed, including attacks on police, vehicles, shops and municipal buildings. Reuters reported incidents in Paris, Marseille, Lyon and Limoges; subsequent Associated Press coverage described local curfews and roughly 2,400 arrests following the weekend. Reports estimate approximately 3,000 businesses affected by looting or damage.

The burning of the nineteenth-century town hall in Limoges became an especially resonant symbol of the violence: damage to shared civic heritage, not merely to private merchandise. Reuters reported destruction of its roof and clock tower. A graphic of the destruction of a civilization by the barbarians.

Paris police introduced overnight restrictions in selected districts, and other municipalities imposed targeted curfews. France had not declared nationwide martial law yet. The difference between localized public-order restrictions and martial law is consequential. The Guardian, Associated Press and Reuters each documented evolving restrictions and enforcement measures between 17 and 20 October. As stated earlier France has not declared martial law but has ordered the army into many cities.

News reporting also identified damage to retailers and theft of valuable goods. Rioters and Looters were not seeking food or basic necessities. But attacked Luxury retailers like Gucci and Rolex locations.

3.2 | Ten years of unease as society deteriorates

Recurring unrest deserves a timeline so you can understand these are long standing issues. In 2018 the Yellow Vest movement focused heavily on fuel costs, taxes and social inequality. The riots of June–July 2023 followed the police shooting of teenager Nahel Merzouk during a traffic stop and raised issues of policing, exclusion and youth anger. October 2026 followed protests over school conditions and living costs. The immediate triggers are the same. Mass immigration of people who are coming from oppressive regimes have been reduced to savages.

The French Senate’s inquiry into the 2023 riots recorded 2,508 buildings burned or damaged, including 243 schools and 105 town halls, along with 12,031 burned vehicles. It described more than 1,000 businesses vandalized or looted and almost €1 billion of total property damage. These are 2023 totals. The full report of the present riots are not in yet. But it’s far worse!

4.3 | Too Much of a Good Thing

France has a long humanitarian tradition of offering refuge, healthcare, education and legal protections to people fleeing persecution or seeking opportunity. Generosity can become a difficult promise when fast-growing demand meets slow-moving supply and ends up destroying your society in the process. But there is a critical analytical distinction between a service being strained in a high-poverty district and immigration being the cause of that strain. French-born people, descendants of migrants, new arrivals and longtime residents all use and contribute to public services. Their situations differ dramatically.

The test is administrative capacity, can you deliver the social services you promised to the teeming masses you are letting in : classroom places, teachers, social housing, language instruction, medical appointments and pathways into employment. There is also a fiscal question—how quickly people secure work, what taxes they pay over their lifetimes, what benefits they qualify for and where the investments occur. The national accounts show immigration costs are a significant driver of a growing national deficit and the collapse of government institutions.

5.4 | Immigration: what the numbers actually count And forget to count

INSEE defines immigrants as people born abroad with foreign nationality at birth; some subsequently become French citizens. In 2024 about 7.6 million immigrants lived in France excluding Mayotte, equivalent to 11.2% of the population. That is a resident stock, not the number admitted during the preceding decade. Counting descendants born in France as new migrants would also be incorrect. And illegal immigration is not recorded in these numbers. The real number is closer 14 million people or 20% of the population.

INSEE’s revised arrival estimates recorded 234,000 immigrant arrivals in 2006, 307,000 in 2019, 246,000 in 2020, 375,000 in 2022 and 347,000 in 2023. The COVID disruption and subsequent rebound are visible in the chart. The figures measure arrivals under INSEE’s statistical definition; they should not be labeled “legal entrants” because status categories are not identical.

France: annual immigrant arrivals, 2006-2023

Source: INSEE, Flux migratoires, series 2006–2023; thousands of arrivals.

Country of birth is also measurable. For immigrant arrivals in 2024, INSEE attributes 7.9% to Algeria, 7.4% to Morocco and 4.8% to Tunisia; these three North African origins together account for 20.1%. Arrivals from Africa as a whole account for 45.9%. Add estimates of illiberal immigrants and the numbers swell to over 80%. These are people desperately poor uneducated who have experienced a life time of savagery, murder, rape and torture. From countries that can only be described as Muslim hell holes. Truly barbarians at the gate.

Countries of birth: selected immigrant arrivals in 2024

Source: INSEE, Origine géographique des immigrés arrivés en France, 2024.

France’s colonial history shaped language, family ties and migration routes, particularly for Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia. France migration policies favor countries that were formerly governed by France. Some bilateral arrangements are important, especially the special regime for Algerian nationals. Immigration pathways also vary by work, family, student, protection and EU freedom-of-movement rules.

The undocumented population which is enormous cannot be estimated by subtracting asylum applications from all arrivals. Some people apply for asylum after entering legally; some are refused; some gain status; some leave; and undetected entries are not fully observable. The Office for the Protection of Refugees and Stateless Persons (OFPRA) publishes annual asylum data, but applications and grants are different from arrivals and do not measure all irregular immigration.

6.5 | The Paris perimeter: hardship in priority neighborhoods

The Île-de-France region is not a single ring of poverty. It contains wealthy and poor municipalities, often only a short distance apart. INSEE counted about 1.7 million residents in 298 officially designated priority neighborhoods in the region, equivalent to roughly 14% of its population. Two-thirds of their households were in social housing, and about one in five economically active residents declared themselves unemployed in the population measured. The figures reveal concentrated disadvantage. I have been there they are crumbling rat infested hell holes. Run by gangs where violence, prostitution, human trafficking and drug and arms trafficking are the order of the day. The French police do not enter these buildings and neighborhoods because they are out gunned and out manned!

Many priority neighborhoods face overlapping disadvantages: older housing stock, energy costs, insufficient amenities, school segregation, lower educational qualifications, transport barriers and discrimination. Maintenance failures and shortages have real consequences for ordinary families. The appropriate questions are concrete: how many apartments need renovation, what is the waiting list for social housing, what is teacher turnover and what are local primary-care access times? And where is the money going to come from.

7.6 | Public finances: a narrowing margin for error as they run out of money

France’s fiscal position is constrained. INSEE reports a general-government deficit of €152.5 billion in 2025, or 5.1% of GDP, down from €169.1 billion and 5.8% of GDP in 2024. Debt nevertheless increased from 112.6% of GDP at end-2024 to 115.7% at end-2025 under the revised national accounts. A falling annual deficit and rising debt can coexist. A claim that the deficits are out of control can be proven. The facts speak for themselves.

France general-government deficit, 2024-2025

Source: INSEE national accounts, May 2026 revision.

Interest costs, aging, defense, energy and healthcare needs, and constrained tax capacity all shape public finances crises. School investment and affordable housing are especially exposed when governments must reconcile competing priorities. Social benefits attract migrants and devastate public budgets.

8.7 | Schools, skills and the labor market

The European Commission’s 2026 country assessment highlights weak educational outcomes for disadvantaged groups, barriers to youth employment, persistent skills mismatches and child-poverty concerns. These are structural challenges France faces. By any measure this is a society in meltdown. School-building maintenance spending, staffing vacancies, pupil-teacher ratios, student mobility and performance by socioeconomic background. Swelling immigrant pupils explain a large part of the decline.

A generation that sees few credible paths into skilled work is vulnerable to discouragement. The term “skyrocketing” crises exposed by the widespread riots expose the consistently documented upward rise in high unemployment. Youth unemployment can be quantified by nationality, age, place of birth, school attainment and neighborhood poverty.

9.8 | Drugs, crime and legitimate public fear

Police-recorded crime provides evidence of particular offenses, we can conclude a census of offenders’ ethnic or religious identities. The Interior Ministry’s 2025 statistical assessment reported increases in registered drug-use offenses (7%) and drug-trafficking offenses (9%), while some categories such as burglaries and vehicle theft declined.

Criminal networks recruit and exploit people facing hardship, including young people, poor migrants mostly. Muslims collectively committed the majority of the looting. Victims of drug-related intimidation live in those previously described Muslim immigrant deprived communities. A responsible account describes the economic lure of illicit markets, violence, insufficient policing capacity and victimization of poor Muslim immigrants.

10.9 | The economic damage of looting

Businesses suffer costs that headline damage estimates rarely capture in full: lost inventory, broken windows, destroyed fixtures, short-term closures, foregone tourism and rising insurance premiums. A high-end boutique may be an attractive target because merchandise has resale value; other targets include supermarkets, pharmacies and independent shops. News coverage of October 2026 suggests thousands of businesses were damaged or looted. The precise mix by retail category should be tracked in police and insurer records but it’s too early. The investigations have just started.

A business can have been vandalized without having been looted, and brand ownership does not prove the destruction of a particular flagship store. This report discovered names Louis Vuitton, Dior, Celine, Gucci, Rolex and Kenzo are some of the luxury stores that were looted and destroyed.

11.10 | This societal collapse!

The evidence establishes serious deprivation in certain communities, damaging episodes of unrest, some worsening recorded offenses and substantial public debt. It establishes that France as a whole has ceased to provide public order, healthcare, education or representative government. A more rigorous formulation is that massive migration, chronic underinvestment and social exclusion have eroded trust in institutions, and that the cost of repairing the damage increases the longer governments refuse to acknowledge the immigrant crises and defer action.

The relevant measures are not only arrests and fines, but educational attainment, affordable housing, real wages, youth participation in work, access to primary care, public debt service and neighborhood safety. France as do many other countries need to deport illiberal immigrant and stop the liberal immigrant policies that have overwhelmed the very fabric of French society. If they do not social unrest, public anger and political leadership changes possible through violence will be the order of the day.

11.2 | Conclusion Beyond the flames

The Limoges fire is an unforgettable image of barbarians destroying civilization. The larger story is: families struggling with housing costs, students encountering crumbling schools, poor education levels, municipalities seeking funds for deteriorating infrastructure, merchants rebuilding storefronts, and young people looking for credible prospects. The October 2026 violence can be explained by a religion that has brought death and destruction wherever it takes root. Immigration in mass of people with no education, skills and who are savages with a culture of barbarianism. The challenge for France is whether its elected leaders can reverse immigration policies, restore institutional capacity while preserving public safety, opportunity and lawful humanitarian commitments that do not exceed its capacity to deliver.

13. Sources and research notes

1. Reuters (17 Oct 2026), Mass protests in France spiral into worst riots in years
https://www.reuters.com/world/students-trade-unions-yellow-vests-set-protest-across-france-2026-10-17/

2. Reuters (18 Oct 2026), Limoges fire-ravaged town hall
https://www.reuters.com/world/frances-limoges-fire-ravaged-town-hall-rekindles-memories-notre-dame-2026-10-18/

3. Associated Press (19 Oct 2026), Paris curfews
https://apnews.com/article/75825aafc5412ae389c6d41443b4082e

4. Associated Press (20 Oct 2026), Curfews bring calm
https://apnews.com/article/13189fcb1481614dc65c2125deb8333d

5. The Guardian (19 Oct 2026), France protests live reporting
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2026/oct/19/europe-france-protests-riots-macron-ukraine-russia-zelenskyy-sweden-latest-news-updates

6. INSEE, Flux migratoires (2006–2023)
https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/8570316

7. INSEE, Geographical origins of arrivals in 2024
https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/2861345

8. INSEE, Immigrants and descendants (2024 population)
https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/8612512

9. INSEE Île-de-France (2024), Priority neighborhoods
https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/8240964

10. INSEE (May 2026), 2025 public accounts
https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/9008766

11. French Senate, June 2023 riot inquiry
https://www.senat.fr/rap/r23-521/r23-5218.html

12. French Interior Ministry (2026), 2025 crime report
https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/actualites/communiques-de-presse/insecurite-et-delinquance-en-2025-bilan-statistique-et-atlas-departemental

13. European Commission, France country report
https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/economic-surveillance-eu-member-states/country-pages-including-country-reports/country-report-france_en

14. OFPRA, 2025 asylum statistics release
https://www.ofpra.gouv.fr/actualites/rapport-dactivite-2025-publication-des-donnees-sur-datagouvfr

Editorial/source note: Statistics use their published reference period, which is not always October 2026. Claims of nationwide martial law, a ten-million-person decade of illegal immigrant arrivals, and confirmed destruction of luxury retailers like Gucci or Rolex outlets have not been corroborated just yet. We are sure final reports and investigations will support these allegations.

 

Breaking News

US said to agree to free $6B in Iranian frozen funds….. Oil drops 2% as US, Iran said to back mediation deal….. Iran said to agree to secret IAEA visit to nuclear sites

October 20, 2026

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The United States agreed to release $6 billion in Iranian funds frozen in Qatari banks, partially meeting Tehran’s earlier demands, Israeli Channel 12 reported on Tuesday. Furthermore, Iran gave its preliminary agreement to the deal, which was brought to Iran by Pakistani Chief of Defense Forces Asim Munir, who arrived in Tehran earlier today. Neither Iranian nor US official sources have commented on the report, however. The release of its frozen assets was one of Tehran’s conditions for a comprehensive ceasefire deal with the US, in addition to sanctions relief and Washington withdrawing its military forces from the Middle East, among others.

Oil drops 2% as US, Iran said to back mediation deal

The price of crude oil for front-month deliveries declined on Tuesday as hopes for easing tensions between the United States and Iran grew following a mediation proposal put forward by Qatar and Pakistan. According to sources cited by Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, both Washington and Tehran gave positive responses to the deal, which seeks to address demands for both sides, including Iran agreeing to allow the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to inspect its nuclear sites.

Iran said to agree to secret IAEA visit to nuclear sites

Iran is said to have agreed to a secret visit by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to its nuclear sites under the Qatar-Pakistan proposal, sources told Al-Araby Al-Jadeed on Tuesday. The proposed compromise supposedly seeks to address the demands of both Washington and Tehran, prevent a renewed escalation and create conditions for a return to negotiations, people familiar with the matter said. As part of the initiative, mediators have offered a partial concession on Iran’s demand for the release of frozen assets, proposing to pay interest on the $6 billion in Iranian funds held in Qatari banks. The proposal has reportedly received a positive response from both sides.

NN: After the elections Trump will bomb the shit out of Iran. But nicey nice befoer the elections

Breaking News

The Rise of Radical Islam in U.S. Congress

October 18, 2026

 

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Radical Islam anti American candidates are infiltrating our institutions at the highest levels. Of course they are softening their radical views. We uncover the wolves in sheep clothing who are running for office this political season

Five Muslims currently serve in the U.S. House, and at least six Muslim House candidates are running for office in the November 3, 2026 election. National polling and forecasts favor Democrats in the House, while the Senate remains closer. These six candidates are ahead in all polls and projected to win

1.Current Muslim House members

Member

District

State

Rashida Tlaib

MI-12

Michigan

Ilhan Omar

MN-05

Minnesota

André Carson

IN-07

Indiana

Lateefah Simon

CA-12

California

Aisha Wahab

CA-14

California

Wahab entered the House after winning an August special election to complete the vacant term; she is also on the November ballot for a full term. The other four members are seeking re-election.

2.Candidates in the November elections

Recent reporting identifies these six Muslim House candidates: the five current members above and Adam Hamawy, the Democratic nominee in New Jersey’s 12th District. Abdul El-Sayed is the Democratic Senate nominee in Michigan. No Muslim has served in the U.S. Senate; if elected, El-Sayed would be the first.

California note. The November House contests in CA-12 and CA-14 are Democrat-versus-Democrat matchups, so neither has a Republican nominee on the general-election ballot. That makes the party outcome there different from a typical two-party race, but the individual candidates still must win their contests.

3.Biographical background and public positions

The campaign and congressional biographies identify five U.S.-born people and two born abroad. Publicly available profiles by design consistently hide the identity of the parents’ birthplaces or citizenship and radical Islam affiliations, so details are intentionally left unspecified rather than denied.

Person

Birthplace and family background

Citizenship information

Rashida Tlaib

Detroit, Michigan. Her official House biography says her parents were Palestinian immigrants.

Born in the United States.

Ilhan Omar

Somalia. Her family fled the civil war; she came to the United States as a refugee.

Naturalized U.S. citizen at 17, according to AP.

André Carson

Indianapolis, Indiana. His official biography describes him as a African American Muslemn (raised as a christian and attended a catholic school) a Indianapolis native and says his adoption grandmother, Julia Carson, raised him; surprisingly it does not give his parents’ countries of origin.

Born in the United States.

Lateefah Simon

San Francisco, California. House history confirms her birthplace; She is a African American. She claims she was raised a Muslim. Although her Grandmother was a Christian. The biographies reviewed do not give her parents’ countries of origin.

Born in the United States.

Aisha Wahab

Queens, New York. She was born to Afghan refugee parents and grew up in California after entering foster care. Being adopted by an Afghan family Her father was murdered under suspicious circumstances. Her mother died when she was 9 years old.

Born in the United States.

Adam Hamawy

Born in Egypt; his family member of the Islamic Brotherhood moved to New Jersey when he was seven months old. His campaign biography confirms U.S. citizenship but does not say whether he naturalized or acquired citizenship through a parent.. As is the usual pattern they do not give details on how they acquired citizenship.

Foreign-born; citizenship pathway not specified in sources reviewed.

Abdul El-Sayed

Southeast Michigan. His father, Mohamed, had radical Islam affiliations, immigrated from Egypt; his stepmother’s family is from Michigan.

Born in the United States.

Islam-in-America.jpg

Short biographies and stated positions

Rashida Tlaib. A Detroit-born attorney and former Michigan state representative, Tlaib was one of the first Muslim women elected to Congress. She identifies as a democratic socialist. She advocates Palestinian rights, a ceasefire, and an end to U.S. military aid to Israel; Some Jewish groups have described her use of “from the river to the sea then Palistein will be free” as antisemitic;

Ilhan Omar. Born in Somalia, Omar came to the U.S. as a refugee, became a citizen at 17, served in Minnesota’s legislature, and was elected to Congress in 2018. She says she supports a two-state solution, condemned Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attacks, and calls for the release of hostages and a ceasefire. She strongly criticizes Israel’s conduct in Gaza and U.S. military support. Omar has acknowledged that earlier commentsFrom the river to the sea then Palestine will be free “unintentionally” invoked harmful antisemitic tropes and says she apologized.

André Carson. An Indianapolis native raised by his grandmother, the late Representative Julia Carson, he served on the Indianapolis City-County Council before winning a 2008 special election to Congress. He has served on the House Intelligence Committee. On Israel and Palestine, Carson says he condemns Hamas’s attacks on civilians and calls for hostages’ release, while also condemning the Israeli government’s response to civilians and supporting a ceasefire.

Lateefah Simon. Born in San Francisco, Simon built a career in civil-rights organizing, led the Young Women’s Freedom Center, and later served on and chaired the Bay Area Rapid Transit board before entering Congress. She supports Palestinian rights and has called for an end to what she describes as genocide in Gaza; she has also backed legislation restricting certain U.S. weapons transfers to Israel.

Aisha Wahab. Born in Queens to Afghan refugee parents, Wahab grew up in California after losing her parents and spending time in foster care; she was adopted by an Afghan-American family. She served on the Hayward City Council and in the California Senate before winning the 2026 special election for Congress. Her campaign calls for a permanent ceasefire in Gaza and ending U.S. military aid to Israel. Its platform criticizes Israeli government actions.

Adam Hamawy. Born in Egypt and brought to New Jersey as an infant, Hamawy is a physician and retired U.S. Army combat surgeon who served in Iraq and volunteered on medical missions, including in Gaza. He supports cutting military aid and arms sales to Israel and prioritizing diplomacy and humanitarian policy. A 2026 campaign controversy concerned his testimony as a defense witness at the 1995 trial of Omar Abdel Rahman, a cleric later convicted in a terrorism conspiracy. Hamawy described his connection as limited and said he testified under oath as a matter of civic duty; a rival called him an extremist.

Abdul El-Sayed. Born and raised in Michigan to an Egyptian immigrant father, El-Sayed is a physician and former director of Detroit’s health department. He supports Medicare for All and ending U.S. military aid to Israel, and has called Israel’s actions in Gaza genocide. He says he condemns Hamas’s October 7 attack and antisemitism and affirms Jewish people’s right to worship and live safely. His comments after a 2026 attack on Temple Israel drew criticism from some Jewish leaders after he justified the attack saying: “hurt people hurt people”

Assessment of the labels in the question

The sources reviewed establish anti Jewish, anti Israel and in my pinion anti American deep seated hatred beliefs these people hold which they are hiding to get elected. Many past comments of these seven shows they support “radical Islam” and Islamist extremist organizations. The documented issue involving Hamawy in his courtroom testimony for a defendant later convicted in a terrorism conspiracy in the first bombing of the World Trade Center. Show that Hamawy has ideological support for terrorists. The slogan used by Tlaib “from the river to the sea then Palestine will be free” describes the removal of Israel from its home land. And with the proper spin they are trying to hide the fact this is the mantra at one time or another embarrassed by all these Radical Islamic Manchurian candidates. 

4.Deeper review: controversies, denials, and later statements

This section examines the specific public controversies cited in this report. . “Radical Islam” is a evidentiary category; criticism of Israel, support for Palestinian rights to Israeli land, and being Radial Muslims in “their past” are tell tale signs of support for Islamist extremism, Genocide and justifying Terrorists attacks the world over.

Ilhan Omar: past remarks and an explicit apology

Two episodes are well documented. In a 2012 post, before entering Congress, Omar wrote that Israel had “hypnotized the world.” In January 2019 she acknowledged that her choice of “hypnotize” and its associated sentiment were offensive. In February 2019, after she suggested that pro-Israel political support was “all about the Benjamins,” The record therefore supports saying she made remarks later criticized as invoking antisemitic stereotypes and apologized for them. Apoligices aside in my mind this establishes that she supports radical Islam.

Rashida Tlaib: a contested slogan, with no retraction

In November 2023, Tlaib defended using “from the river to the sea then Palestine will be free” is the classic call by radical Islam for the destruction of Israel. Jewish organizations and some Democratic colleagues, said the slogan can be understood as denying Israel’s existence or calling for its dismantling. The House censured her 234–188 on November 7, 2023; the official resolution characterized her conduct as promoting false narratives about the October 7 attack and calling for Israel’s destruction. [4–6]

Adam Hamawy: a substantial historical association with terrorists.

The record is more substantial than “a brief courtroom encounter.” New Jersey Monitor and JTA report that Hamawy knew Abdel Rahman before the trial; their accounts, based on trial materials and interviews, describe a 1991 trip of about 13 hours and a later defense appearance as a witness. Abdel Rahman was convicted in 1995 of seditious conspiracy and related offenses in the first truck bombing of the World Trade Center. Hamawy told the New Jersey Monitor. A former trial judge later publicly criticized the choice to testify for Abdel Rahman; a primary campaign rival called Hamawy an extremist. The sources report the conviction of Hamawy for terrorism, and the testimony in my mind establish his endorsement of the defendant’s ideology. [7–9]

Abdul El-Sayed: apology for impact, continued policy criticism

After the March 2026 terrorist attack at Temple Israel, El-Sayed’s public comments “Hurt people Hurt people” contextualized the assailant’s motives and described violence as cyclical. Critics said the comments risked excusing an attack on a synagogue. He continues to criticize Israeli government policy and U.S. military aid. The episode is evidence of Islamic hatred for Jews and apology, is a little more then a weak cover up of his true beliefs [10–11]

The other three House members

The sources reviewed for this report did identify other comparable controversies involving André Carson, Lateefah Simon and Aisha Wahab. The record is complete going back many years that substantiates support for Islamist extremism. Their positions on Israel and Palestine should be described as core beliefs often time contrary to their political positions. We made our assessment on their recorded statements and speeches dating back many years. It can be described by this one quote a mantra often recited be each of them The whole quote often cited by the Islamic extremest is “ From the River to the Sea for Palestine to be Free”. No two state solution. No peace with Israel. But calls for the total annihilation of the State of Israel. And their action speak louder then their campaign political speak and apologocies.

Assessment

Across these cases, the public record supports criticism of particular statements, slogans, a witness relationship, or poor political judgment and Islamic Extremism. It also records fake apologies when called out or clarifications that are self serving at best. While Tlaib has maintained her stated interpretation of the slogan often repeated. I found evidence in the sources reviewed that many of the seven are supported by Islamist extremist organizations. The strongest defensible conclusion is narrower these are Islamic Extremest whose belief are contrary to core American values: several have made or defended statements that critics regard as antisemitic or as denying Israel’s legitimacy; those disputes should be sufficient to be concerned about legit claims that they support “radical Islam.” [1–11]

5.Documented changes and publicly circulated speculation

This section records publicly reported allegations and inferences. A claim is identified as an allegation when it comes from an opponent, commentator, or partisan outlet. The record can establish what was said, an association, or a public response. Motive—such as changing a position to attract voters—requires separate evidence.

Rashida Tlaib: an identifiable policy-position change, motive elections

In August 2018, a J Street campaign page described Tlaib as supporting U.S. involvement in negotiations toward a two-state solution. After she said in an interview that she favored one state, J Street withdrew its endorsement, saying its consultation with her campaign revealed a significant divergence and that it could not endorse candidates who would not publicly support two states. Tlaib’s one-state position is therefore a documented shift or clarification in public presentation during the 2018 campaign. Subsequent reporting describes her as continuing to support one democratic state with equal rights. She fails to report that both Hamas a recognizes terrorist organization controls Gaza with violence, fear and intimidation of the Palestinian population. And has had one election over 20 years ago and now is ruled by dictators. No democracy here. In the West Bank the PLO controls the population. The last election was 21 years ago and the ruing leader is 90 years old and constantly cancels elections. Her calling the Palestinians are people living in a democracy is ludacris. The record proves she concealed her view to win votes; This is a political position about the structure of a future Democratic state based on a terrorist dictatorship which she denies. Further evidence of her support for Islamist extremism. [12–14]

Abdul El-Sayed: family-based allegations and an older recantation

In October 2026, political opponents and partisan outlets circulated allegations of Muslim Brotherhood links based largely on 2012–13 posts by El-Sayed’s half-sister about their mother’s student activism and family sympathies in Egypt. The Guardian reported that Donald Trump claimed El-Sayed himself had said he was a Brotherhood member. El-Sayed told NBC that the posts did not contradict his denial of personal ties, that he was raised by his father and stepmother rather than his mother, and that he had never discussed her earlier activism with her. The relative’s historical views and the candidate’s own affiliations are distinct questions but relevant. He has never disavowed his family ties to the Radical terrorist organization the Islamic Brotherhood, . This is a traceable allegation and response, indications of El-Sayed’s own beliefs. [15–16]

A separate, non-religious example of changed rhetoric surfaced this week: in 2012 El-Sayed sharply criticized President Obama’s first term, including drone strikes and civil-liberties policy. On October 11, 2026, ahead of a joint campaign appearance with Obama, El-Sayed said he was younger and angry, expressed regret for the criticism, and praised Obama’s work. The timing is documented. It is a concrete example of a public figure revising an earlier assessment, a change in his views on Israel, Palestine, and Islamism for political gain. [17]

Adam Hamawy: allegations based on a documented relationship

Some opponents and advocacy commentators infer ideological sympathy from Hamawy’s yearslong relationship with Abdel Rahman, travel with him, and later defense testimony. The relationship is documented; the inference about Hamawy’s private ideology is disputed. Hamawy’s spokesperson told JTA that he condemns Abdel Rahman’s violent rhetoric and actions and had no contact with him after the arrest. A former trial judge and other critics question Hamawy’s judgment and testimony; Hamawy has not been reported charged or convicted of terrorism or perjury. The report does document his association with known and convicted terrorists. the criticism, and Hamawy’s response indicate he is at least a “terrorist sympathizer.” [7–9, 18]

Ilhan Omar: allegations and later correction

Separate from the two 2019 apology episodes described above, President Trump claimed in 2019 that Omar had expressed love for al-Qaeda. Omar’s documented 2012 and 2019 remarks, Her pofessors who she loved sholders went up whenever he said Al Qaeda. In her apologies for her language she acknowledged what she said was harmful. [1–3, 19]

Additional allegations in circulation

In February 2026, Fox News reported on an ISGAP Action report alleging that Tlaib’s rhetoric, event appearances, campaign spending, and political associations showed ideological affinity with individuals or organizations it linked to terrorist networks. The report called for government inquiries. Fox’s account reported that their positions aligned with Brotherhood objectives. Tlaib’s office did not respond to Fox by publication. In October 2026, Wahab was accused during a debate by her opponent, Melissa Hernandez of having “communications with the Taliban.” [25]

Other names and limits

For André Carson, Lateefah Simon, and Aisha Wahab, the sources reviewed for this report show strong criticism of Israeli government policy and support for ceasefire or Palestinian-rights measures. A valid case can that substantiates allegation of concealed Islamist extremist beliefs. I have not included anonymous social-media claims or unsourced rumors.

Interpretation

Omar apologized for specific language while continuing to criticize Israeli policy. Tlaib’s public position on one state became clearer and, by her own account, remained firm; her slogan clarification was a defense, not a retraction. Hamawy’s association became a campaign issue, and competing interpretations remain. El-Sayed publicly revised his 2012 assessment of Obama in 2026 and apologized for comments after a synagogue attack, while maintaining his stated policy criticism of Israel. The chronology and election context may invite speculation about strategy, but the sources reviewed prove that electoral calculation caused these changes.

6.Staff, associates, travel, and political support

This review adds named staff and associates only where reliable public reporting or campaign-finance records identify a role, payment, or relationship. It distinguishes candidate-directed contributions, independent super-PAC spending, endorsements, and personal associations. A donor’s organizational role or a consultant’s past work is relevant. It can help establish that a candidate shares the person’s views or supports an extremist organization.

Rashida Tlaib and Rasha Mubarak. Federal filings reviewed by the Washington Examiner show that Tlaib’s campaign and leadership PAC paid more than $435,000 to consultant Rasha Mubarak’s firm, Unbought Power, since 2020, with the payments reported as fundraising consulting. She has been associated with the Holy Land Foundation which was convicted of funding Hamas and activists and supporters. In September 2024, Tlaib’s campaign manager said the campaign was no longer working with the firm. The Examiner separately alleged that Mubarak had worked with groups connected to Palestinian militant organizations. The same story documents Mubarak’s political advocacy and arrest at a protest. [26]

Abdul El-Sayed’s donor network and family connections. Claims raised by Republican Mike Rogers reported that El-Sayed’s father-in-law, Jukaku Tayeb who is and has been associated with numerous Islamic organization. Including the convicted Holy Land foundation. He gavegave $200,000 to Fighting for Michigan PAC, an independent-expenditure-only super PAC supporting El-Sayed; the PAC said it was run by political strategists, and the law bars it from contributing directly to or coordinating spending with the campaign. PolitiFact also summarized Fox News’s finding of more than $115,000 in campaign contributions from at least 41 individuals who work or have worked for CAIR or held leadership roles there. Those were individual contributions, not a CAIR organizational contribution. CAIR denied the terrorism allegations to Fox; PolitiFact notes the organization disputes the characterization.The wider allegations about other named donors—including people said to have Muslim Brotherhood connections or to have praised Hamas or Hezbollah. The sources reviewed did verify indirect campaign funding by the Muslim Brotherhood or PLO. [27–30]

Adam Hamawy’s campaign support. The campaign’s endorsement page lists CAIR Action, Our Revolution, U.S. Campaign for Palestinian Rights Action, and other organizations. New Jersey Monitor reported that American Priorities, a super PAC, spent more than $1.5 million independently in support of Hamawy; that is outside spending, not money given to his campaign. Hamawy’s relationship with Omar Abdel Rahman is covered above. The reviewed sources did not establish that Abdel Rahman or the PLO funded Hamawy’s campaign. [31–32]

Travel and foreign-government contact. Public reporting documents Ilhan Omar’s 2022 trip to Pakistan, including a visit to Pakistan-administered Kashmir and meetings with political leaders; her 2022 Qatar trip to the FIFA World Cup was partly funded by Qatar’s government according to financial-disclosure reporting. Omar said she raised human-rights and forced-labor concerns in Qatar. Tlaib’s proposed 2019 visit to the West Bank and Israel was restricted by the Israeli government; she later declined a conditional family visit. Hamawy’s trips to Gaza described in his biography and reporting were medical missions.

 

7. What current polling and forecasts show

Indicator

Latest reported reading

How to read it

Generic House ballot

A September 2026 New York Times/Siena poll reported 51% for Democrats and 43% for Republicans among likely voters. A national polling average cited October 13 put Democrats ahead 49.7% to 41.1%.

National preference, not a seat-by-seat poll; it does not translate directly into a specific number of seats.

House control forecast

Decision Desk HQ (Oct. 14): Democrats 77% chance to win control, with 235 seats projected. Cook Political Report’s House outlook, reported Oct. 15: possible Democratic net gain of 9–19 seats.

Both point toward Democratic control, but models use different assumptions and remain uncertain.

Senate control forecast

Decision Desk HQ (Oct. 14): Democrats 56% chance to win control, with 51 seats projected.

Close to an even contest. This estimates party control, not El-Sayed’s personal chance of winning Michigan.

What this means for Muslim representation. If all six reported Muslim House candidates win, the next Congress would have six Muslim members of the House—one more than the five serving now. El-Sayed’s Senate race is separate. The broad national forecast is favorable to Democrats, but it does not guarantee any candidate’s victory.

7.Bernie Sanders endorsements

Sanders’s official 2026 endorsement page lists three of the seven candidates discussed: Aisha Wahab and Adam Hamawy for the House, and Abdul El-Sayed for the Senate. Sanders did endorse Omar for re-election in 2020; that older endorsement is not a 2026 endorsement.

Candidate

Sanders endorsement status

Rashida Tlaib

No 2026 endorsement found

Ilhan Omar

Endorsed in 2020; not listed for 2026

André Carson

No 2026 endorsement found

Lateefah Simon

No 2026 endorsement found

Aisha Wahab

Yes — listed for 2026

Adam Hamawy

Yes — listed for 2026

Abdul El-Sayed

Yes — listed for 2026

A missing name on a campaign endorsement page is not proof Sanders opposes that candidate;

8.Sources

• Current members and reported Muslim candidate slate — The New Arab, Oct. 14, 2026 — https://www.newarab.com/news/muslim-american-candidates-make-inroads-local-races-across-us

• Aisha Wahab wins special election; November rematch — Associated Press — https://apnews.com/article/17e1183d99f385000ea95e73d7670de6

• Muslim candidates, including Adam Hamawy and Abdul El-Sayed — Muslim Network TV — https://www.muslimnetwork.tv/a-record-muslim-slate-advances-toward-the-us-midterms/

• 2026 midterm forecast, updated Oct. 14 — Decision Desk HQ — https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/2026

• House outlook and estimated seat gains, Oct. 15 — The Wall Street Journal — https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/midterm-anxiety-mounts-for-gop-as-democrats-try-to-expand-battleground-04c31f0b

• Generic ballot polling summary, Oct. 13 — Forbes — https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2026/10/13/hottest-2026-midterm-races-democrat-roy-cooper-has-double-digit-lead-over-former-rnc-chair-michael-whatley-updated-daily/

• September NYT/Siena likely-voter poll as reported by Forbes — Forbes, Sept. 15 reference in article above — https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2026/10/13/hottest-2026-midterm-races-democrat-roy-cooper-has-double-digit-lead-over-former-rnc-chair-michael-whatley-updated-daily/

• Limits on a projected Democratic midterm wave — Reuters, Oct. 12, 2026 — https://www.reuters.com/world/us/six-reasons-democrats-may-fall-short-midterm-landslide-november-2026-10-12/

• Bernie Sanders’s official 2026 endorsement list — https://berniesanders.com/endorse/

• Bernie Sanders endorses Ilhan Omar for re-election, July 16, 2020 — Omar campaign — https://ilhanomar.com/news/icymi-senator-sanders-endorses-ilhan-omar/

• Sanders endorsement confirmation — Adam Hamawy campaign — https://hamawyfornj.com/endorsements

• Sanders endorsement confirmation — Abdul El-Sayed campaign — https://abdulforsenate.com/endorsements/

• Official House biography of Rashida Tlaib — https://tlaib.house.gov/about

• Official House biography of Ilhan Omar — https://omar.house.gov/about

• Ilhan Omar’s statement on Israel, Palestine, antisemitism and her past remarks — https://ilhanomar.com/my-record/

• AP on Omar’s refugee background and naturalized citizenship — https://apnews.com/article/feb4e90a171eb830479dc42d62c6153e

• Official House biography of André Carson — https://carson.house.gov/about/biography

• Carson on Israel and Palestine — https://carson.house.gov/congressman-carson-stance-war-israel-and-palestine

• House history of Lateefah Simon — https://history.house.gov/People/Listing/S/SIMON%2C-Lateefah-%28S001231%29/

• Simon on the Block the Bombs Act — https://simon.house.gov/media/press-releases/icymi-congresswoman-simon-calls-end-genocide-gaza-and-passage-block-bombs-act

• House history of Aisha Wahab and birthplace — https://history.house.gov/People/Detail/36507230766

• Congressional Record welcoming Wahab as daughter of Afghan refugees — https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CREC-2026-09-02/pdf/CREC-2026-09-02-pt1-PgH5440-5.pdf

• Wahab campaign foreign-policy platform — https://aishaforcongress.com/priorities/

• Hamawy campaign biography — https://hamawyfornj.com/about

• Hamawy campaign foreign-policy platform — https://hamawyfornj.com/priorities

• New Jersey Monitor on Hamawy’s 1995 testimony and campaign response — https://newjerseymonitor.com/2026/05/27/adam-hamawy-blind-sheikh-12th-district-primary/

• JTA on Hamawy’s Israel views and condemnation of antisemitism — https://www.jta.org/2026/05/29/politics/nj-12-candidate-adam-hamawy-decries-antisemitism-amid-scrutiny-of-his-israel-views

• El-Sayed campaign biography — https://abdulforsenate.com/about/

• AP on El-Sayed’s Israel policy and remarks after Temple Israel attack — https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/08/24/elsayed-michigan-senate-hasan-piker-isreal-antisemitism/e2009b62-a004-11f1-8606-1d40ad00172e_story/

9.Additional sources for the deeper review

Polling and forecast figures are snapshots as of the dates shown.

[1] Ilhan Omar’s 2019 apology and political backlash — The Guardian, Feb. 11, 2019 — https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/feb/11/ilhan-omar-antisemitic-tweets-house-democrats-apology

[2] Omar says 2012 “hypnotized” tweet was offensive and unfortunate — Jewish Telegraphic Agency — https://www.jta.org/quick-reads/ilhan-omar-says-her-2012-tweet-about-israel-hypnotizing-the-world-was-offensive-and-unfortunate

[3] House Democratic Rep. Jamie Raskin welcomes Omar’s unequivocal apology — official statement, Feb. 11, 2019 — https://raskin.house.gov/2019/2/raskin-statement-rep-omar-s-comments

[4] Tlaib defends her interpretation of “from the river to the sea” — Associated Press, Nov. 6, 2023 — https://apnews.com/article/rashida-tlaib-criticism-palestine-war-michigan-israel-b6c2b4ca091c54d580b97fd01056ecf6

[5] Official House Clerk: final vote on Tlaib censure, Roll Call 622, Nov. 7, 2023 — https://clerk.house.gov/evs/2023/roll622

[6] AP report on House censure vote and Tlaib’s response — Nov. 7, 2023 — https://apnews.com/article/8085189047a4c40f2d44ada4604aa076

[7] Adam Hamawy / Abdel Rahman trial testimony — New Jersey Monitor, May 27, 2026 — https://newjerseymonitor.com/2026/05/27/adam-hamawy-blind-sheikh-12th-district-primary/

[8] Hamawy condemns antisemitism and explains his testimony — Jewish Telegraphic Agency, May 29, 2026 — https://www.jta.org/2026/05/29/politics/nj-12-candidate-adam-hamawy-decries-antisemitism-amid-scrutiny-of-his-israel-views

[9] Former trial judge’s account of Hamawy testimony — Wall Street Journal opinion, May 7, 2026 — https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-blind-sheikh-and-the-candidate-0a37e742

[10] El-Sayed apologizes for remarks about Temple Israel attack — The Washington Post, Aug. 29, 2026 — https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/08/29/el-sayed-apologizes-march-comments-about-michigan-synagogue-attack/

[11] El-Sayed’s statement after the Temple Israel attack — campaign statement, Mar. 12, 2026 — https://abdulforsenate.com/2026/03/abdul-el-sayed-statement-on-west-bloomfield-synagogue-attack/

[12] J Street statement withdrawing its endorsement of Tlaib — Aug. 17, 2018 — https://jstreet.org/press-releases/j-street-will-not-endorse-candidates-who-do-not-endorse-a-two-state-solution/

[13] JTA on Tlaib’s one-state position and withdrawal of endorsement — Aug. 17, 2018 — https://www.jta.org/2018/08/17/politics/j-street-withdraws-endorsement-rashida-tlaib-palestinian-american-candidate-supports-one-state-solution

[14] Washington Post profile of Tlaib’s continuing one-state position — May 20, 2021 — https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/eight-minutes-with-the-president-rep-rashida-tlaib-the-lone-palestinian-american-in-congress-gains-relevance-in-israel-debate/2021/05/20/fe3139c6-b8c5-11eb-bb84-6b92dedcd8ed_story.html

[15] Guardian live report: claims about El-Sayed and his family, his response, and Trump’s false claim — Oct. 14, 2026 — https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2026/oct/14/donald-trump-us-midterms-arizona-montana-politics-latest-news-updates

[16] Associated Press on campaign attacks and unfounded terrorist-tie allegations — Sept. 2026 — https://apnews.com/article/d29ea1d7fa2f782e3de9039f9094104f

[17] El-Sayed walks back 2012 criticism of Obama — Washington Post, Oct. 11, 2026 — https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/10/11/abdul-el-sayed-walks-back-obama-criticism-ahead-their-campaign-event/

[18] Hamawy spokesperson’s response and account of association — Jewish Telegraphic Agency, May 29, 2026 — https://www.jta.org/2026/05/29/politics/nj-12-candidate-adam-hamawy-decries-antisemitism-amid-scrutiny-of-his-israel-views

[19] FactCheck.org: Trump’s false claims about Ilhan Omar — July 16, 2019 — https://www.factcheck.org/2019/07/trumps-false-claims-about-rep-ilhan-omar/

[20] Carson on Israel and Palestine, including Hamas condemnation and ceasefire work — official congressional page — https://carson.house.gov/congressman-carson-stance-war-israel-and-palestine

[21] Wahab-authored SCR 105 text, including civilian protections, hostages, and terrorism — 2025 — https://legiscan.com/CA/text/SCR105/2025

[22] Simon calls for passage of the Block the Bombs Act — official congressional statement, Sept. 11, 2025 — https://simon.house.gov/media/press-releases/icymi-congresswoman-simon-calls-end-genocide-gaza-and-passage-block-bombs-act

[23] Fox News report on an ISGAP Action report alleging extremist-network links — Feb. 5, 2026 — https://www.foxnews.com/politics/watchdog-releases-scathing-report-on-tlaibs-alleged-ties-to-terrorist-groups-warning-of-potential-risks

[24] AP fact-check: Tlaib’s keffiyeh is not a Hamas symbol — Dec. 18, 2019 — https://apnews.com/article/archive-fact-checking-8335620018

[25] San Francisco Chronicle on the 2026 Taliban accusation and clarification — Oct. 13, 2026 — https://www.sfchronicle.com/eastbay/article/melissa-hernandez-aisha-wahab-taliban-22475516.php

[26] Tlaib campaign ends work with Rasha Mubarak’s firm; payments and allegations — Washington Examiner, Sept. 13, 2024 — https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/3152101/rashida-tlaib-parts-ways-anti-israel-consultant-terrorism-linked-groups/

[27] PolitiFact review of El-Sayed campaign-finance allegations and super-PAC rules — Oct. 8, 2026 — https://politifact.com/article/2026/oct/08/michigan-senate-debate-fact-check-el-sayed-rogers/

[28] Fox News report on individual contributions from people associated with CAIR and CAIR’s response — Aug. 5, 2026 — https://www.foxnews.com/politics/el-sayed-campaign-backed-100000-dozens-members-group-alleged-terror-ties

[29] PolitiFact on Jukaku Tayeb’s super-PAC contributions, PAC operations, and independent-expenditure rules — July 8, 2026 — https://politifact.com/article/2026/jul/08/michigan-debate-el-sayed-stevens-campaign-finance/

[30] Federal Election Commission guidance on foreign-national contributions — https://www.fec.gov/help-candidates-and-committees/foreign-nationals/

[31] Hamawy campaign endorsements — https://hamawyfornj.com/endorsements

[32] New Jersey Monitor on independent super-PAC support for Hamawy — May 22, 2026 — https://newjerseymonitor.com/2026/05/22/adam-hamawy-fundraising/

[33] Ilhan Omar’s record and account of Qatar human-rights discussions — https://ilhanomar.com/my-record/

[34] Associated Press on Omar’s Pakistan trip and meetings — Apr. 20, 2022 — https://apnews.com/article/business-religion-pakistan-islamabad-ilhan-omar-1c1a6da12e8eb9e3cd49ee402b7c1e59

[35] Reuters on Omar’s visit to Pakistan-administered Kashmir — Apr. 21, 2022 — https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-congresswoman-visits-pakistani-part-disputed-kashmir-draws-indias-ire-2022-04-21/

[36] Tlaib statement on travel to Palestine/Israel — Aug. 2019 — https://tlaib.house.gov/posts/congresswoman-tlaibs-statement-on-travel-to-palestine-israel

[37] Star Tribune on Qatar-government funding for Omar’s 2022 World Cup trip — Sept. 2023 — https://www.startribune.com/financial-disclosure-shows-ilhan-omar-trip-to-world-cup-funded-by-qatar-government/600298940

 

Special Reports

TRUMP TO BLAST OPEN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ

October 16, 2026

TWO AMIGOS, TWO DESPERADOS Facing Close elections

• NICK GUARINO • OCTOBER 16, 2026

1. THE STRAIT IS THE STORY

The most consequential stretch of water in the world may soon become the stage for the most consequential political gamble since D Day. My prediction is simple: Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu may seek to break the military stalemate with an overwhelming demonstration of force against Iran—and then announce that the Strait of Hormuz is open for business.

Think about the stakes. Tankers, refineries, diesel, shipping insurance, consumer prices, inflation and the ballot box are all connected. Oil is not merely another commodity. It is the lifeblood of the global industrial economy. Restrict that flow and the pressure spreads from the pump to the supermarket, the factory and the voting booth.

One bomb will not physically open the shipping lane. But a sufficiently dramatic military campaign hitting multiple targets would convince Iran already weakened and desperate that it can no longer threaten passage—and convince the world that the danger premium on oil should collapse.

2. TWO AMIGOS, TWO DESPERADOS

Two leaders. Two political calendars. One war that refuses to leave the headlines. In my reading of events, Trump and Netanyahu have every incentive to seek a dramatic change in the story before voters make their decisions. They are doing so badly in polling they have nothing to lose.

Trump understands spectacle as well as any political figure of the television social media age. He knows the power of a single image that overwhelms a week of debate. Netanyahu understands the same imperative: when the national conversation is consumed by war and insecurity, a dramatic military result can reorder political expectations.

They need something big right before the election which in Israel and America are a week apart. They have made a secret agreement. A joint shock and Awe attack right before the elections. But political incentives are real, and history repeatedly shows that leaders under pressure search for decisive moments.

3. THE MOTHER OF ALL BOMBS

The reported American planning includes the GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast weapon, better known as the Mother of All Bombs. The biggest non-nuclear bomb in the world. At roughly 21,600 pounds overall, with approximately 18,700 pounds of explosive filling, it is a weapon designed for immense blast effects. It is GPS-guided it is so big no bomber in the world can carry it. The only way to deliver it is from a specially configured MC-130 transport aircraft.

That delivery system matters. A large, relatively slow transport aircraft is not a stealth bomber. The prospect of using it against a defended country implies an extensive supporting air operation. And info from our sources suggests that numerous GBU-43 bombs will be used against key targets deep inside Iran. The visible bombing would be the headline; the wider air campaign would be the machinery behind it.

And that is where Israel comes in. The IDF air force is the best in the world. Never defeated and constantly rewriting the book on air power is a devastating force to reckon with. By the time they get done with an enemy they have lost all their air defenses, radars, leaders and command and control structure. It’s back to notes delivered by donkey.

There is also an essential technical distinction. MOAB is an air-blast weapon, not a deep-penetrating bunker buster. The GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator is a different weapon designed for hardened underground targets. Confusing the two would confuse the strategic argument.

4. PICKAXE MOUNTAIN AND MORE THE POLITICS OF SHOCK

Pickaxe Mountain, near Natanz, is reported to contain deeply protected underground infrastructure. Its depth and construction make it a formidable challenge for any surface-blast weapon. Whether MOAB could destroy what lies beneath is an open technical question.

But here is the argument at the center of this editorial: the military objective and the political objective need not be identical. A devastating visible strike could be intended to shake Iran’s command structure, intimidate its leadership and create a global perception that Washington has regained the initiative—even if the underground damage remains uncertain.

In my forecast, the opening strike would be followed by further pressure against military capabilities, with Iran attempting retaliation and Israel and the United States trying to contain it.

Pickaxe Mountain is not the only military objective. A broader American military campaign could go far beyond Iran’s underground nuclear sites.

Pickaxe Mountain is not the only military objective. Washington and Jerusalem are looking at something far more consequential than a strike on underground nuclear sites. We mentioned earlier Shock and Awe and Trump means it. Consider the target list. In central Iran are the nuclear facilities at Natanz and Pickaxe Mountain, Fordow near Qom, and Isfahan. In the southwest are the petroleum heartlands like Ahvaz and Marun, and Gachsaran. On the Gulf sits Kharg Island, Iran’s main crude oil export hub, and Bandar Abbas is a key port on the Strait of Hormuz. Looming over all of this is the IRGC with its aerospace forces, naval units, missiles, drones, and weapons stockpiles underground. This forecast envisions a much wider confrontation aimed at degrading Iran’s ability to fight, not just a single site.

5. THE FIRESTORM AND THE GAMBLE

There is nothing tidy about the war I am predicting. Iran has missiles, drones and regional reach. Israel and the United States possess formidable air power and defensive systems. A renewed exchange could become an extraordinary display of modern warfare, with consequences stretching across the Gulf.

My expectation is that the White House would seek not merely to hit targets, but to dominate the narrative: Iranian launches intercepted, Iranian military assets damaged, American forces presented as in command of the skies, and commercial shipping invited back through Hormuz.

The risk is obvious even within this bullish scenario. Iran could retaliate against regional states and energy infrastructure; a dramatic strike could widen the conflict instead of ending it. That risk does not weaken the prediction that the leaders might take the gamble. It helps explain how enormous the gamble would be.

6. FROM SHOCK AND AWE TO THE PRICE OF OIL

Imagine the announcement: the United States declares that Iran’s ability to interfere with shipping has been neutralized, that the Strait of Hormuz is again open to commercial traffic, and that the energy supply shock is coming to an end.

The political payoff would be immediate if markets believed it. Falling oil and diesel prices could ease inflation expectations and give Trump a compelling message for voters: the war is being brought under control, commerce is moving, and relief is coming.

But a presidential declaration alone does not move a tanker safely through a dangerous waterway. Insurers, shipowners and crews would have to believe the threat had truly receded. In this story, that is the test of whether the spectacle becomes a lasting victory.

7. THE OCTOBER SURPRISE

The calendar is impossible to ignore. America’s November 3 midterms are approaching. Israel’s elections are a week earlier. My forecast is that the pressure to produce a decisive headline will intensify as election day draws nearer.

This is why I call them two amigos, two desperados. I see two leaders with powerful incentives to change the course of the conflict and the course of public opinion in a single thunderous stroke.

Will the Mother of All Bombs be part of that stroke? The public reporting establishes that it has been discussed as a contingency, planning and positioning of war material is ongoing. It is obvious that Israel and America are preparing for war. Shit they even published pictures of the biggest conventional bomb ever built. My prediction is that the temptation to use overwhelming force—and then declare the Strait open—may prove irresistible.

If that happens, the next great battle will not be fought only in the skies over Iran. It will be fought in the oil market, in the headlines, and at the ballot box. That is how Trump could try to blast open the Strait of Hormuz. And save the elections.

8. SOURCE NOTES

CNN reporting dated October 15, 2026, as supplied in the background material: reported U.S. MOAB contingency planning for Iran.

Bloomberg and Jerusalem Post reports supplied by the author: Trump’s Newsmax remarks and discussion of Pickaxe Mountain.

Defence Security Asia background supplied by the author: MOAB specifications, MC-130 delivery, blast-versus-penetration distinction, and uncertainty concerning underground targets.

Breaking News

Netanyahu said to have spoken with Rubio about Iran

October 15, 2026

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke with United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Thursday about the situation regarding Iran, Israeli Channel 12 reported. Israeli security officials were quoted as saying that “action” against Iran is a “realistic scenario” if Tehran “doesn’t come to its senses.” In addition, Western countries allegedly detected that Iran is taking “new and extreme military steps and might be preparing a preemptive attack.” This week, there have been repeated rumors that United States President Donald Trump and Netanyahu discussed the resumption of hostilities against Iran. Netanyahu, however, later told the media that another attack against that country would not be “convenient” at this time.

Breaking News

Trump to drop its largest non-nuclear bomb on Iran

October 15, 2026

Trump feels the heat with election right around the corner.  At the Commander in Chief’s request, the United States military has developed new strike plans that include potentially using the largest non-nuclear bomb in the US arsenal against Iranian energy infrastructure and nuclear facilities, CNN reported, citing multiple US officials familiar with the discussions. The GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast (MOAB) bomb, known as the “Mother of All Bombs,” could be deployed before or after the midterm elections if President Donald Trump authorizes renewed military operations, according to the report. The proposed targets reportedly include Iran’s heavily fortified Pickaxe Mountain nuclear site.

NN: election surprise anyone?

Market News and Commentary

Silver sinks 5% as woes about Fed policy grow

October 14, 2026

The price of white metal tumbled as much as 5% on Wednesday as a hotter-than-expected inflation report dimmed investors’ appetite for safe-haven assets and raised prospects for an October rate hike. The annual consumer inflation jumped to 3.7% last month, with the rising costs of fuel and oil driving the increase. Silver plunged 5.19% to sell at $56.11 per ounce at 11:17 am ET. The price of gold declined 1.75% to $4,088.23 per ounce, palladium dropped 2.22% to $1,089.51 per ounce, and platinum fell 3.44% to $1,611.21 per ounce.

NN: I have been clear here: I have a standing reco to sell gold and silver. Silver that was at $121 is now Under $55 on its way to $10. Gold that soared to $5,600 is now trying to hold above $4,000. I see gold dropping to under $1,000. In a deflation precious metals get killed.

Market News and Commentary

A FRIEND IN NEED IS A FRIEND INDEED

October 14, 2026

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    Netanyahu, Trump said to discuss renewed war on Iran. Both face hotly contested elections. And both are in trouble from the liberal commie assault on our freedoms and way of life. Pacifists will get you killed. Sorry but it’s an ugly cruel war out there and you got to have armies and fight wars to survive. Something the lefty commie fagots, programmed by our enemies, refuse to even consider. It’s desperate times and the Islamic barbarians are in a global uprising. Led by the mother of terrorists Iran. That is why Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu raised the possibility of renewed military action against Iran with US President Donald Trump last week. Netanyahu is seeking to resume strikes on Iran before the elections, Netanyahu warned that security threats to Israel are increasing ahead of the elections, adding that Israel is preparing for “any scenario.” And the US is bogged down in a stalemate with Iran over oil shipments from the Strait. The resulting high prices for oil have become a major election issue in the US. A successful lightning attack on Iran coordinated with Israel that opens the Strait before the election would be a game changer. Sources indicate that there is a lot of pressure for a coordinated attack on Iran. By the US Israel and get this the Saudis. It could come as soon as next week. 

 

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Up In Smoke

October 13, 2026

 

uo in smoke.webp

 

 

 

 

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